Efficiency is an Excuse to Not Do the Actual Work

This was originally published in my newsletter, How It Actually Works

If you’re trying to do something efficiently you’re probably stalling.

Premature optimization is the root of all evil for engineers, but it’s also an excuse that prevents progress in personal goals.

Looking for efficiency in daily life is similar to seeking “the best way” of doing something.

And it’s insidious because the logic isn’t all that bad…

“If I’m going to try and lose weight, I might as well do it in the best and most efficient way possible, right?”


You need momentum. You need progress. You need forward movement happening right now.

The importance of morale is vastly underestimated.

”I want to lose weight, what are the best exercises to do?”

Get down RIGHT THIS SECOND and start doing push ups. Go for a run in whatever clothes you already own.

”I want to start a SaaS business, what stack should I use?”

Pick up the phone and call 10 potential customers to see if they want the thing.

”There might be a parking space closer to the entrance, I’ll keep looking”

There’s tons of parking 50 feet back, pick a spot and just walk.

”I want to sell an online course. What’s the best way to make a website?”
Send 5 emails right now to the first 5 people you can think of who might need this. Do not write templates – bang out the email and hit send. If they actually need the product they won’t care about typos.

”I want to be a photographer, I wonder what gear I should buy.”

Use your iPhone.

So much “work” is merely distracting ourselves from the reality: we have no customers, we don’t know what people want, we don’t have a sales channel, and on and on.

This was originally published in my newsletter, How It Actually Works

What Stories Do You Tell Yourself That Aren’t True?

This was originally published in my newsletter How It Actually Works

How much of your view of the world is based on stories and narratives?

We hear things like:

  • the economy is good/bad
  • X actor’s career is dying (based on 1 movie)
  • buying a house is a good investment

…and often take them at face value.

Too much of what we think we understand about the world is from a narrative we’ve absorbed without examining the underlying data.

You can disocver this trap by attempting to explain the details of an idea that you internalized as a story.

This happened to me on a phone call last week.

I was chatting with a Disney executive friend who works in Beijing, and asked him what he thought about China’s competitiveness with the US.

It’s a big topic these days and something you hear about semi frequently: China is working harder, moving faster, growing more, etc.

(All narratives.)

So I asked him, Are they doing better than the US?

And his stupid simple response made me pause: “What do you mean by ‘doing better’ ?”

Uh…. And I hesitated, because I had to actually think about it.

What exactly did I mean by “they work harder”? Or that they’re “more innovative?”

What does it even mean for one country to be “doing better” than another?

I had an opinion built from a story I’d consumed by reading hundreds of tweets, headlines, articles, etc., but never from looking at actual data.

We fall to narratives all the time. This is why people do things like buy houses and go to law school.

(Wanna be THAT GUY at a dinner party? Ask someone the top 3 specific changes their favorite politician would enact if they won office. Most people can barely name 1.)

Ask yourself: what stories do you accept as reality about the world?

Maybe it’s that tech is too powerful and needs regulation.

Or that San Francisco would fix its problems by building more housing.

Or that entrepreneurship is sexy and worthwhile.

To be clear I’m not saying whether these things are true or not. I’m saying be cognizant of how you come to your conclusion, and beware how much of that is just a narrative you’ve accepted without doing critical thinking on your own.

Same Facts, Different Story

There’s a similar mistake we make which is having widely different interpretations of reality based on nearly identical facts.

Take a game of basketball that’s won by a single point.

After the game the commentators always have some “analysis” or opinion of what mattered in the game and led to victory.

Ask yourself how would their comments change if, instead of losing by a point, that same team had won by a point.

You know the story would be different.

The importance of players on the winning team would grow, the significance of the losers’ mistakes would be magnified, the talk about which players should be traded or let go would change, etc.

Yet the facts between the two outcomes is identical but for a single extra point!

3 Women World Leaders

In a different universe we’d have the narrative of 3 simultaneous, powerful women leaders in Western democracies:

  • The 1st woman President of the United States, Hillary Clinton
  • The 1st woman Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel
  • The 2nd woman Prime Minister of Great Britain, Theresa May

Women increasing in influence, opportunity, etc., would be a big narrative.

And First Woman President Follows First Black President is a headline that literally would have made the history books.

But yet again the factual differences between that headline and what actually happened on election day is minuscule: a mere 80,000 votes.

Trump could have died on November 9th without a day in office, and the narrative about the United States would still have been fundamentally different than had Clinton won.

Instead of headlines about multiple women leaders in powerful countries, and the transition of US presidential power from one minority to another, we saw headlines like “An American Tragedy”.

Like a game where the winner wins by a single point, the facts are almost identical but the story that gets told is completely different.

It’s cliche but the word story makes up most of history. And history is just the emphasis of certain facts over others.

Stories You Tell About Yourself

This happens everywhere, e.g. in headlines based on the same research study.

But a more interesting example is that you do this to yourself.

We tell stories about ourselves constantly: about how successful we are (or aren’t), about why we have certain preferences, about our own personalities.

Are you “lazy” or do you “work smart, not hard”?

Are you “introverted and shy”, or “someone who makes friends intentionally”?

Try this exercise:

Tell yourself 2 different versions of your career narrative.

Try one version where e.g. you’ve worked hard, made smart choices, minimized mistakes, and overcome a myriad of struggles.

Then try the total opposite where maybe you got a few lucky breaks, you happened to meet the right people at the right time, and you were in a field that was already growing.

Which one do you prefer? Does it matter?

So Anything Goes?

“So Trevor are you saying I should dig for the “true” story? Or that I can make up any story that best suits my needs? What the hell is your point?”

My point is to be cognizant of what information you have stored as a story.

Sometimes there are multiple narratives that are equally valid. And sometimes there aren’t! (i.e. there’s no reason to rerun the experiments that led to the periodic table! That story checks out.)

But other times there’s more accurate or improved stories we can tell about the world and about ourselves if only we’re self-aware enough to notice.

Read more about this in my newsletter How It Actually Works.

Why You Should Ignore Every Founder’s Story About How They Started Their company

This was originally published in my newsletter How It Actually Works.

Founding Stories Are Myths

Company founding stories are almost always non-malicious lies. Take Netflix:

Reed Hastings has said many times that he got the idea for Netflix because he once was charged a $40 late fee on Apollo 13.

That didn’t actually happen.

It’s unfortunate because it will inevitably mislead anyone learning how to start a company.

Sam Walton’s Overnight Success

Sam was already 44(!) when he opened the first Walmart and had been running his own retail stores for over 15 years.

He wondered why people focused on the beginning of Walmart:

Somehow over the years folks have gotten the impression that Walmart was something I dreamed up out of the blue as a middle-aged man, and that it was just this great idea that turned into an overnight success… Like most overnight successes, it was about 20 years in the making

If you’re trying to build your own thing & you want to learn from “the founder of Walmart”, looking at the start of the company itself is stupid because at that point he already had 15 years of experience

So let’s start with Sam’s very first store.

The Biggest Mistake Of Sam’s Professional Life

Sam started his retail career at 27 buying his 1st store, a “Ben Franklin” variety store franchise.

As a beginner he relied on the franchise’s playbook but also incorporated his own experiments.

Things like:

  • putting popcorn & ice cream machines in front of the store to drive traffic
  • doing huge discounts but actually making it up in volume (i.e. not ironically)
  • buying directly from manufactures instead of going through the franchise (which allowed for cheaper prices)

He worked hard on that single store for 5 years, grew sales 3.5x to $250k/year and became the #1 Ben Franklin franchisee in his six-state region.

But then he found out he’d made a gigantic mistake.

When he signed the store lease he didn’t include an option to renew it.

The owner (a local department store competitor) saw his success & refused to renew the lease at any price, thereby forcing Sam to shut down the store.

Imagine working on something for 5 years straight, becoming the best at it, and then having a single person end it all.

Sam was devastated:

It was the lowpoint of my business life. I felt sick to my stomach. I couldn’t believe it was happening to me… I had built the best variety store in the whole region and worked hard in the community – done everything right – and now I was being kicked out of town. It didn’t seem fair. I blamed myself for ever getting suckered into such an awful lease, and I was furious at the landlord.

He was mad, but he accepted responsibility:

I’ve always thought of problems as challenges, and this one wasn’t any different… I had to pick myself up and get on with it, do it all over again, only even better this time.

If Facebook or Google change their algorithms you at least get to keep your old customer base and your business assets.

But with a retail store you have none of that.

And because of the structure of the town they couldn’t just open another store somewhere nearby.

The Waltons literally had to pack up their family of 6 and go find a new town.

If he’d wanted to Sam had plenty of reasons to sulk: they were starting all over in a smaller town (Bentonville) that also had its fair share of competition (3 other variety stores).

But Sam said “it didn’t matter much because I had big plans.”

Unsexy Determination

Sam spent the next 12 years in what I call narrative lingo.

It’s the crucial part of any “overnight success” that doesn’t get covered in the Successful Entrepreneur genre.

No one writes about all the random tangents and mistakes you make here.

Like, say, that time Sam tried to start a shopping mall 10 years too early and lost $25,000?

Or what about the time a tornado destroyed his best performing store? All he had to say was “we just rebuilt it and got back at it.”

This is important to know if you’re trying to learn from Sam, but it doesn’t fit into any narrative.

The lesson here is that there will be mistakes and problems on any path to success. As a recent book title says, those obstacles are the way itself.

A coworker said Sam excelled here because he woke up every day “determined to improve something”, and that he was

less afraid of being wrong than anyone I’ve ever known…Once he sees he’s wrong, he just shakes it off and heads in another direction.

You don’t get any of this from Reed Hastings when he talks about $40 late fees. You think “oh I need a great idea” when the reality is the idea is nothing and your psychology & persistence is everything.

Eventually Sam got to 15 stores & by 1960 was the largest independent variety store operator in the US, doing a a total of ~$12M (in 2018 dollars) in annual revenue.

It Would Seem Obvious

It was here that Sam finally saw the opportunity for much bigger discount stores and got to work on the 1st Walmart.

He was the most successful independent operator in the US & had 15 years of experience in retail, surely it should have been easy for him to raise money from investors…?


Sam asked other store owners, entrepreneurs, competitors… basically everyone said no.

He got a measily 5% from his own brother & a store manager and had to borrow the other 95% (signing their house and all their other stores as collatoral).

Even the great Sam Walton couldn’t find investors to start the 1st Walmart, on the back of a near-perfect record in retail.

The 1st Wal-Mart

Finally, the point where most people look at to learn, is the end of our story.

The 1st Walmart was an ugly retail store (8-foot ceilings, concrete floor, wooden fixtures) but it worked because Walmart’s prices always beat competitors.

(Even the name “Walmart” was selected with customer prices in mind: it was cheaper to buy neon signs for 7 letters than the longer names Sam considered.)

And you think Sam cared 2 cents about what anyone else thought about his stores?

The New York Times doesn’t mention Sam or Walmart until 1969, 7 years after the 1st store opening, and he’s just one random quote in the back of the paper:

And the Walmart 1970 IPO got a single mention on page 44 of the Times:

If you want to learn from entrepreneurs, look at the start not the finish.

Read more stories like this in my newsletter How It Actually Works.

The Absolute Best Books I read in 2017

The Wright Brothers 

The best lesson of the Wright Brothers is that people who do great things usually get there because they love the thing they’re working on for its own sakeThe brothers’ primary motivation wasn’t fame or money. They liked inventing and fell in love with a problem.

Best startup book I’ve ever read: persistence, resourcefulness, ran a bike shop full-time to pay for their research, mocked by the press for years, etc.

When Breath Becomes Air

This book is like a huge siren with a big sign shouting at you: what’s actually important in your life? It’s the posthumously-published autobiography a doctor who died of cancer at 37… just as he was starting to reap the return on investment of years and years of research, school, etc.

It’s a quick read and worth every page.

Enemy at the Gates: The Battle for Stalingrad

Stalingrad was one of the ugliest battles in the ugliest war. The “best” takeaways are the stories about how desensitized people were to death.

I wrote myself a note I try to remember: “When you don’t feel like working, remember the Battle of Stalingrad.”

Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis

It’s possible that some poverty in the US can be as much about culture as it is about opportunity. This book helps you understand that point of view.

Powerhouse: The Untold Story of Hollywood’s Creative Artists Agency

CAA was at one time the most powerful agency in Hollywood. It was founded by 5 different guys but the one you’ve probably heard of is Michael Ovitz.

I read this to understand how someone becomes as powerful as he did in an industry as emotional and relationship-driven as show business. The format of the book is awesome: all verbatim quotes from hundreds of interviewees… so it’s really easy to jump around if you’re looking for a specific topic or person.

Sam Walton: Made In America

See: People who do great things love the thing itself, not the fame or money.

Fun story: when he started Walmart Sam was already was a private pilot with his own plane. So when he was looking at opening a new store he’d fly around the area he was considering to scout for the best possible locations.

This is the best example I know of of an early competitive advantage that many big businesses start with that you never hear about in the mythical founding story retelling.

The Fish That Ate the Whale: The Life and Times of America’s Banana King

Ignore the weird title because this book is fantastic. A guy who came from nothing and ended up dominating the entire banana business.

He was utterly determined to succeed and would not be stopped, example 1: the US government was trying to collect additional taxes on bananas (mostly imported from Honduras) that would destroy all of Zemurray’s profits. Faced with an opponent as formidable as the United States government you or I would likely give up & go home. Not this guy!

Instead he recruited an exiled Honduran General and successfully staged a military coup in Honduras.

The new government then gave Zemurray the tax deal he wanted. Ethically dubious perhaps, but the determination and relentlessness is remarkable.

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life

Even if you’ve studied Buffett you should read this, it has great little stories and details you don’t see anywhere else.

Fun example of his determination: putting on a bathing suit and getting in the ocean to build a relationship with Katherine Graham.

And here’s every other book I read this year:


Endurance: Shackleton’s Incredible Voyage
Humans are capable of overcoming almost anything.

Napoleon: A Life
To have a place in history you need to be in the right place at the right time, but Napoleon was also incredibly talented. His memory was 2nd to none, in that he’d remember people he’d met in crowds from 10 years prior.

The Johnstown Flood
Amazing story about a flood that took out entire towns that I’d never heard about until this year. Also David McCullough’s first book.

Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA
Stories of CIA secret agents who died while serving that the CIA can’t talk about.

Business History

Eccentric Orbits: The Iridium Story
Great story about how one entrepreneur negotiated a deal to buy a bunch of satellites that Motorola was going to burn up in the earth’s atmosphere.

Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco
Too long, but great coverage of the beginning of private equity in the 80s.

100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to–1 and How To Find Them
This showed me that it’s impossible to predict what companies are going to 100x based on the company itself: it’s all about the people.

A Payment History of the United States: From Bills to Bitcoin
A concise and readable history of how payments in the US work. Credit cards and ACH finally explained!

Dear Chairman: Boardroom Battles and the Rise of Shareholder Activism
Fun stories of investors taking over companies.

The Upstarts: How Uber, Airbnb, and the Killer Companies of the New Silicon Valley Are Changing the World
Worth reading to get a better sense of the inside of Uber. Not as horrible a place as you might think.

The Outsiders: Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically Rational Blueprint for Success
Stories of CEOs who achieved amazing returns for their investors and how they did it. Not really actionable advice since every story is so unique, but the meta takeaway is almost always: people who do great things like the thing for its own sake.

Misc. Good Books

The Billion Dollar Spy: A True Story of Cold War Espionage and Betrayal
The story of the most valuable intelligence asset the American government has ever turned: a Russian engineer.

The City & The City
A work of fiction! A murder mystery that takes place in “two” cities that geographically overlap, but whose citizens by law aren’t allowed to see members or buildings from the other town.

The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason
The most eloquent book on why believing in God is silly.

The Little Book That Still Beats the Market
Great beginner read for on investing: Joel Greenblatt talks about the 2 things that make a company a good investment: it has high returns on capital, purchased at a good price. Makes a great stocking stuffer for all your relatives who want to invest their life savings into Bitcoin.

The Quest of the Simple Life
You can be happy with what you have today, as told by a man in the 1st decade of the 1900’s.

From Impossible To Inevitable: How Hyper-Growth Companies Create Predictable Revenue
Actionable advice on growing a SaaS business.

Finite and Infinite Games
Still wrapping my brain around this one but basically: life can be a game to be explored if you know what to look at.

Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
Not just about the Internet, but it could be.

The Radicalism of the American Revolution
WOW I did not realize how inaccurate my perception of American and English society in the 1700s was. Social hierarchy was everything, making money was seen as taboo or lesser class, and the government was run by the elites because they had the social authority to do so.

The Systems Bible: The Beginner’s Guide to Systems Large and Small
Witty author about a dense subject: don’t create systems unless you absolutely have to. And if you do create a system, start with a simple one or you’re doomed to fail.

Thinking, Fast and Slow
Your brain has two modes of thinking: automatic & conscious. Make sure you’re applying the right one when you’re trying to solve a problem.

Business/Advice Books that Should Have Been a Blog Post

Don’t Read These

The Zurich Axioms: The rules of risk and reward used by generations of Swiss bankers
Hocus pocus stories about what works in investing

Spent: Sex, Evolution, and Consumer Behavior
An apparently bitter author who repeats himself 200 times saying consumers are driven by sex & status and that companies know this.

Chaos Monkeys: Obscene Fortune and Random Failure in Silicon Valley
It turns out some crazy stuff goes down in places where there are many rich and powerful people.

Best example ever of how a piece of work should be judged by the standards of its era: Dune is so slow, and there is so little plot, I don’t see how any person raised on YouTube could stick through it. I finished the damn thing expecting a huge payoff at the end but it never materialized. 1

  1. If you love Dune I’d genuinely love to understand why… I tried going through forums and reddit after I read it but never got it.

Rage Against Credentials

I hate credentials.

I hate the formality and the letters and the sense of eliteness.

I hate how they are arbitrary and often irrelevant measures of skill and effectiveness.

I hate that they’re cultural markers: “do you know how to talk like us?”

I hate how the institutions granting credentials have power.

I hate that more and more jobs require credentials.


Taking the bar makes you a good lawyer? I call bullsh*t.

Passing the four CPA exams makes you an “official” accountant? Bullsh*t squared.

99% of the CPAs in the world never do anything that legally requires the credential.


If you’re in a position to make your own hiring decisions you could do a lot worse than looking for talented and “hungry” people who don’t have credentials.

Media Isn’t About Truth

In 2015 I was on Gimlet Media’s Startup podcast as the “Atheist Bible Salesman”.

Startup was their biggest podcast by far at the time and so my story got a ton of internet and even mainstream press, including being discussed multiple times on Fox News.

The best part was seeing the difference between how the story was covered and talked about, versus what actually happened.

This wasn’t a complicated story that involved a big company or lots of people or different organizations. It didn’t involve anyone other than me, so I literally know all the facts.

If you’ve been talked about significantly online you know what I’m talking about. There’s an enormous gap between the truth and what’s covered.

This is so common we even have a name for it: the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect.

Why does this happen?

Why don’t we read the New York Times the same way we read the tabloids? And why isn’t the New York Times better at finding truth?

I’m not saying this is a conspiracy. The NYT isn’t overtly lying or trying to hide important information.

The problem is that all the incentives are all wrong.

Truth takes time, and readers frankly aren’t interested in it. Humans are far more interested in:

  • having their views confirmed (“My worldview is OK because these people think the same way”)
  • feeling morally superior (“People who don’t think like this are bad”)
  • being part of the tribe (“I read the same news as the people I admire”)
  • feeling smart (“I read the news with the best brand”)
  • having something to say in daily conversation (“I said something timely in my meeting with a client today”)1
  • being entertained
  • gossip

Even worse: the business model of the vast majority of media is advertising, so their incentive isn’t even to tell you the truth in the first place, but to capture your attention.

They will get to truth in so much as it doesn’t cost them your attention or too much money to produce.

And they have to make another tradeoff still! Which is that if they don’t hit publish in time, a competitor might beat them and capture the valuable attention of the audience for the same story.

To be clear, this isn’t a new problem from the modern internet (i.e. Facebook and Google). The late Michael Crichton said this in 2002: (emphasis mine)

You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well… You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them. 

The point was that journalists aren’t experts at what they cover. How could they be?

They’re not in the industry, don’t have the background or experience, and they’re never in the room or the building where the event(s) they’re covering actually happened.2

And then journalists have huge confirmation biases: the much-read NYT piece about Amazon had “over 100 sources” but that’s out of (in 2017) over 300,000 employees! And that doesn’t even include all the employees who have left.

If you couldn’t find 100 people who are pissed at any employer of that size I’d be amazed. Hell, make it 1,000.

Sources also have all of their own non-truth-seeking incentives for talking to a reporter:

  • wanting press for their next thing
  • hurting a competitor
  • maintaining a good relationship with the journalist
  • defaming a rising industry
  • elevated status
  • personal content marketing

I don’t know what to do about this. It’s not a new problem and will continue for the rest of our lives.

But remember that the Gell-Mann Amnesia Effect is real. When you laugh at how silly something you’re an expert in sounds in the paper, remember that most everything else should be treated with the same ridicule.

  1. The Skimm’s created an entire business of telling you what’s happened to give you daily talking points about the news

  2. They often don’t have the technical expertise either. This isn’t a perfect example, but I’ve seen tech reporters covering the fastest growing businesses in the world saying they never took a class in economics.

Great People or Great Circumstances

If you read enough biographies of famous and successful people1 it becomes painfully obvious that the greatest people all got incredibly lucky in their circumstances.

Not in that they born rich or well-connected, but that they were in a place where something could happen.

Steve Jobs’ career would have been very different if he hadn’t been adopted by parents living in Silicon Valley.

Napoleon wouldn’t be a name without coming of age during the French Revolution.

FDR would be just another president with the Great Depression and WWII. Same with Lincoln.

Alexander Hamilton would have been a nobody if he hadn’t gotten off his native island in the West Indies.

To be clear: all these people were very talented and made the most of their opportunity.

But we wouldn’t know their names if dumb luck didn’t give them a chance to be somebody.


  1. Are there biographies of non-famous and unsuccessful people? Maybe internal family biographies?

We All Died So That You Might Live

For a long time I thought our species had a way out of death: eventually we’d figure out immortality, become a multiplanetary species, and travel as far in the universe as our understanding of physics would permit.

We only needed enough time.

Then a friend pointed out to me that, no no no, such a thing could not happen as the universe would inevitably begin to fall back on itself and crush everything in existence. 1

So if literally EVERYTHING will one day cease to exist, what the f*ck is the point of anything?

Here’s my latest stab.

To enjoy consciousness today, all previous generations had to live and die:

“Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new.”

A lot of people had to die so that we might live.

Some people find inspiration in Jesus dying for mankind.

But I find it even more inspiring that all previous generations gave their lives so that humanity could march on, allowing you and I to enjoy consciousness at this precise moment.

And so that’s how I find meaning in death: dying will be a tiny part of that push forward.

Just a little more evolution, a little more progress, a small shot at giving more humans the chance at consciousness.



  1. I’d known this expanding/contracting universe fact for a long time, but apparently my desire to find purpose and immortality overcame my brain’s ability to combine that fact with the prior desire. This is a life lesson: our bodies and minds are often not incentivized to find truth

Lessons from the Japanese Porn King

Bloomberg’s piece about the Japanese billionaire porn titan is well worth a read.

A few thoughts:

1. Business vs Product

“In three decades of financing pornography, Kameyama says he hasn’t set foot on an adult movie set more than once or twice, and he doesn’t watch his own films. To him, porn is the proverbial widget — a thing to sell for more than it costs to make and market, no different from any other product.”

Some people say you need to be excited about your own product, but you can be passionate about the business itself.

How do I find customers, how do I hire, how do I optimize, etc., are all their own challenges and triumphs; what you happen to sell obviously is important, but it doesn’t have to be the thing you’re into.

2. Being Warren Buffett

Owning lots of businesses is the new cool thing. People with wealth have always diversified, but you hear about it a lot more these days:

  • This story
  • The Saudis investing in assets outside of oil
  • Stories like Brent Beshore of Adventrues doing “mini private equity”
  • The $500 million Social Capital fund to buy tech companies that don’t want to IPO

3. Do Now, Adjust Later

He hates the lobby decor and design @ their HQ but did it because someone he trusted said it would help attract talent.

“I hate it,” he says. “But if it works, great. If it doesn’t, we’ll try something else.”

That feels like the philosophy of the great entrepreneurs I know. There is no fear of failure. Do now and adjust later. There’s no fear of feeling stupid. The whole thing is just one grand experiment.

That’s the same attitude he had earlier in life, where he tried a little of everything:

  • Accounting school, but dropped out
  • Semi-nude dancer at a gay Chippendale’s club
  • Washing cadavers at a hospital
  • Owned several movie rental shops in his late 20’s

4. Narratives All the Way Down

This story covers a few of the paths he tried, but I’m sure there are tons more. And I’m also sure that the successful businesses have their own fits and starts, too.

The great mistake is to compare the inside of your business to the outside of the businesses you read about online.

Media has to tell a story because that’s what we like to read. But most successes don’t have great narratives in the moment. They’re all constructed after the fact.1

5. Start Small

Great advice on how to contribute to society:

Kameyama’s : Start by building a company that lets a few people feed their families, instead of trying to tackle global hunger.”

Everything begins with a single customer.

  1. Cue Steve Jobs commencement speech quote: “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future”.

A Simple Way to Avoid Being Wrong

Not Even Warren Buffett Could Predict the iPhone Would Decrease Chewing Gum Sales is a fun narrative that I almost wrote about.

But it’s probably wrong.

So I wanted to know why I almost made that mistake and also how to prevent making the same mistake in the future.

Buffett did a great Q&A that that I’ve written about before. In one part while talking about moats he makes a prediction:

I’m not going to be able to figure out what the moat’s gonna look like for Oracle or Lotus or Microsoft 10 years from now. [Bill] Gates is the best businessman I’ve ever run into, and they’ve got a helluva position, but I really don’t know what their business is gonna look like 10 years from now. And I certainly don’t know what his competitors’ businesses are gonna look like 10 years from now… I know what the chewing gum business is gonna look like 10 years from now. I mean, the internet is not gonna change how we chew gum.

And then just a few months ago a bunch of places (including Business Insider and Recode) wrote a post with this chart:

Made by Euromonitor International

And they all basically said the same thing: “We’re so addicted to our phones that we don’t look up to buy chewing gum at the grocery store checkout. The iPhone has changed everything!

At a quick glance the idea seems very reasonable, even intuitive.

We know how much the iPhone has changed everything else about our lives, we can see ourselves bored on our phones during checkout, it feels a simple narrative, etc.

Until you think about disconfirming evidence.

What could prove this idea is wrong?

Everything I said about this being easy to believe is all evidence that confirms the idea.1

But what about something that would disprove it?

I can think of 2 simple things that would do the trick:

  • Is gum mainly bought at checkouts? If not, people being bored in checkouts would have to be a really strong cause to affect sales
  • Have sales of other products primarily available at checkouts also declined? I.e. why would distracted shoppers not buy gum because of their phone but continue to buy, say, candy?

It’s “hard” to think of disconfirming evidence when you’re first looking at an idea. It takes a concerted and conscious effort.

I found a simple study in the Robot’s Rebellion that confirms this.

Each of the boxes below represents a card lying on a table:

  • Each one of the cards has a letter on one side and a number on the other side.
  • Is the following rule true: If a card has a vowel on its letter side, then it has an even number on its number side.
  • Which card or cards must be turned over in order to find out whether the rule is true or false?

Take a moment to think about this before reading on.

The K is easily ignored and the A is simple. But the 8 and 5 are tricky.

The right answer feels like 8, and that’s what most people choose. But it’s wrong.

Picking the 8 comes from a desire to seek confirming evidence

Which is why we tend to ignore the 5. We already know it’s odd, so it can’t confirm the other side is a vowel.

But it could prove the rule to be wrong, i.e. disconfirming evidence.

If we turn it over and the letter is a vowel, we know the rule is wrong.

Seeking disconfirming evidence takes effort. We’re all biased to interpret new evidence according to our previous knowledge of the world.

Even stopping for a few seconds to ask “what would prove this false” would be a huge improvement in the project of finding truth.

  1. Confirmation bias FTW